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Estimating the Cardinals’ comp picks

Posted by Darren Urban on March 20, 2017 – 11:41 am

A team can have up to four compensatory draft picks — extra picks a team gets when it loses more free agents than it signs — in a year. While the comp picks, maxed out at 32 across the league, are a moving target for now with free agency ongoing, the Cardinals seem to be in line for four extra choices. The actual formula remains a secret, but enough people have been working on it enough that a general idea of where the picks land can be estimated. Overthecap.com credits the Cardinals (as of now) with an extra third-rounder, an extra fourth-rounder, an extra fifth-rounder and an extra sixth-rounder in the 2018 draft.

Calais Campbell nets the third-round pick. Tony Jefferson the fourth-rounder. Marcus Cooper gets a fifth-rounder, and although the loss of D.J. Swearinger is canceled out by the signing of kicker Phil Dawson, Kevin Minter’s departure gets a sixth-rounder. The losses of Earl Watford and Alex Okafor are offset by the signings of Karlos Dansby and Jarvis Jones.

Again, this is an estimation. The league doesn’t release the formula, and other things eventually can be involved, including playing time and postseason honors. But if the Cards end up with four extra picks, that wouldn’t be too bad. There doesn’t seem to be much percolating with any new signings right now, which would mean more extra picks at this time next year.


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31 Responses to “Estimating the Cardinals’ comp picks”

  1. By georgiebird on Mar 20, 2017 | Reply

    Darren,
    All I can say about he guys who keep the compensatory pick formula a secret- they should be hired by the CIA, FBI, DOJ, State Gov’t, Federal Gov’t , non-profits, and anywhere else a degree of integrity is part of the job description.

  2. By joe holst on Mar 20, 2017 | Reply

    Those pick will be super awesome and well deserved. you should be bang on with your guess estimate,

  3. By silverbackdk on Mar 20, 2017 | Reply

    That would be great with both the 32nd and the last comp pick in round 3 of the draft next year….

  4. By KMART on Mar 20, 2017 | Reply

    Darren,

    Would any 1-year deal signings from here on have any impact on the estimated comp picks?

  5. By Darren Urban on Mar 20, 2017 | Reply

    KMart —

    RE: Signings

    Would depend on the signing.

  6. By georgiebird on Mar 20, 2017 | Reply

    Most importantly, these comp picks can be traded. Perfect spot to get a QB in Rd 1 if BASK feel he’s that good. Otherwise, a chance for SK to get some defensive help so desperately needed.

  7. By mitchaz on Mar 21, 2017 | Reply

    If the Cardinals are intent on taking a QB at #13 it appears likely that one or two of the top 3 rated QBs will be available when it is their turn to pick.

    My favorite of the top 3 is Patrick Mahomes. However, it would not surprise me if he’s the first QB taken or that he is off the board by the time the Cardinals pick.

    if Mahomes is available at #13 and the Cardinals take him, in my opinion, they would need to modify their current offense to suit Mahomes’ strengths. The perfect offense for Mahomes is what the Packers run for Aaron Rodgers. Lots of shotgun formations…and lots of pocket shifts via bootlegs, waggles and sprint outs.

    Were the Cardinals to try to make Mahomes fit into BA’s traditional offense, this would be a mistake.

    Same in some respects for Mitchell Trubisky and Deshaun Watson. Trubisky is very good throwing on the run and Watson, from time to time, at his size, needs pocket shifts in order to create better vision and clear passing lanes.

    If the Cardinals draft Trubisky — they would become the ultimate “No Risk-It, No Biscuit”! As Trubisky’s nickname is “Biscuit.”

    The question becomes — is BA amenable to making changes to his offense?

    Secondly, if the Cardinals do draft a QB early in the draft this year, are they drafting him potentially for a different head coach if BA retires?

    if the Cardinals would prefer to have the QB fit BA’s current system, the best suited for it may well be Davis Webb. Webb has the size and requisite arm strength — and his game isn’t predicated on pocket shifts.

    Would the Cardinals consider taking Webb at #13? Or would they consider trading down in the 1st round if they felt confident he would still be on the board? Would they gamble that he would still be available at #45? Or would they try to trade up from #45?

    I did not mention DeShone Kizer because the Cardinals have met with Mahomes, Trubisky, Watson, Webb and Peterman — but not Kizer. Unless that is an elaborate ruse, it does not appear that the Cardinals feel he’s a fit for them.

    In other news, the Cardinals are working out Florida CB Teez Tabor. Tabor is a cagy ballhawk who gets his hands on a lot of passes — but he’s not a classic press CB, nor is he a blazer (4.6 at the Combine).

    The questions are — are the Cardinals considering him at #13, or, because of Tabor’s slow 40 and couple of disciplinary issues at Florida, do they anticipate him possibly being available at #45?

    The Saints are also working him out and they have three of the top 43 picks.

    Another CB the Cardinals are looking closely at is Jeremy Cutrer of Middle Tennessee St. Cutrer has good size (6-1, 170) and 4.4 speed. He played in a press cover system at MTSU and thrived the past two seasons picking off 6 passes and registering 29 pass breakups. Very tough in run support. He also has two blocked kicks on his resume.

  8. By dynosoar on Mar 21, 2017 | Reply

    1st round

    Derek Barnett – Tennessee.
    He broke Eric Berry’s Sack record at UT. Eric Berry’s!
    He posted double-digit sack and TFL numbers all three season. Tennessee’s all-time sack leader (33 sacks) ended his college career in strong fashion in 2016. He finished the year with 13 sacks and 19 TFLs (both first in the SEC).

    If you want CB
    Cameron Sutton – Tennessee
    He had seven interceptions and on Special Teams he returned three punts for TDs (isn’t this the same mold we looked at when drafting PP?)

  9. By mitchaz on Mar 21, 2017 | Reply

    dynosaur—

    The draft sets up well to take a prolific pass rusher. It could very well be that Taco Charlton, Derek Barnett, Haason Reddick, Takk McKinley and Charles Harris will be on the board at #13. Adding a 3rd prolific edge rusher could make the Cardinals’ pass rush elite — la the Broncos’ and Chiefs’.

    I am on board with Barnett — he is a stud.

    I am also enamored with Reddick (great versatility and fit for the Cardinals 34 and nickel) and Harris (Markus Golden Part II, only faster).

    Your pick of Cameron Sutton is a good one, too. Not sure though if he as physical as the Cardinals like their press CBs to be. But, he’s a very good ballhawk and punt returner.

  10. By JTDG on Mar 21, 2017 | Reply

    Mitch and Dyno,

    I like Barnett more as a trading chip. If say, Pitt, Dallas, Miami, Detroit want another pass rusher, they may want to come up and get Barnett.

    If you could get another two, that would be a heck of a trade.

    With the lack of free agents, you need to build through the draft. With no depth at safety, no CB2, oline needs help in several spots, need a QB of future, need wrs, dline has questions. You need as many picks as possible.

    Besides, didn’t you see, we signed Jarvis Jones. His 6 sacks over 4 years is nothing to take lightly ( as the sarcasm oozes)

  11. By RagingREDBirds on Mar 21, 2017 | Reply

    I think most fans see the 2004 as the greatest draft class in the last 30 years. I am starting to wonder how hard it might be to to sign the 2015 draft class which the team can start to sign next year. That would mean BIG contracts with Humphries as a starting LT that pulls good money in the league (1st pick), Golden might demand crazy money with another 10 sack year (2nd pick), David enough said (3rd pick), and I think Gunter will have a very solid year ( 4th pick). If they wait to 2019 to sign these guys they might lose them. That does even talk about JJ (5th pick) who might be great or just average. Plus Bucannon (2014) will get a fifth year option putting his new contract to be slotted 2019. Tons of talent and TONS of possible MONEY.

  12. By Andy Kw on Mar 21, 2017 | Reply

    I feel like Arizona has one of the best linebacker groups in the NFL. Chandler Jones and Markus on the outside rushing the passer. Deone Bucannon and Karlos Dansby in the middle, who can drop into coverage or rush the passer.
    Then we have All-Pros Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu.
    Yes the defense lost some very good players but we are still a top 10 defense.

  13. By JTDG on Mar 21, 2017 | Reply

    I find this interesting;

    This is one of the best DB drafts I can remember. I think many teams are looking for players in the draft to either come in and play or give depth in teams defensive backfield.

    Well, all but the Bears. The Bears currently have 18, yes I said 18 DBs on their roster. In comparison, the cards have 12 DBs on their roster right now.

  14. By jasonc on Mar 22, 2017 | Reply

    Who’s giving Andy Kw thumbs down for that comment? I’m interested which part you felt was disapproving?

    On a draft note: Mel Kiper released his newest mock draft and @13 he has the Cardinals taking QB Deshawn Watson from Clemson.

    What is the feeling about this pick? I wasn’t sure Watson had the frame but his 6’2 220 measurements were legitimized at the combine and now I find it hard to criticize us making this choice. In the national championship game (against a defense constructed to stop him because of what he did to ‘Bama the year before) he was able to stay focused and make clutch plays under the brightest of lights in the biggest pressure situation to lead his team to the win. I’ve read the knocks on him posed by the media scouts and early in the process I even saw him as a second round pick on some media boards, but I find it hard to discredit his performance the last two years in the national championship games. To be able to perform in that pressure cooker at the level he did is something to take note of.

    With that being said I do not think he will be available @13…just my gut feeling. My dream draft would give us the opportunity to select Malik Hooker or Marshon Lattimore from Ohio State, but I believe they will both be gone as well. Watson is the only QB I would be ok with in round one so if all of those guys are gone where do we go?

    I like the thought of Quincy Wilson (or insert whomever you believe the best secondary player is) in the first and selecting Davis Webb in the second round. I read an article about Davis Webb on bleacher report that I really enjoyed and think he would be a good selection to learn behind Palmer. He has the size and arm that would fit with our system.

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2698763-meet-davis-webb-the-nfl-draft-prospect-who-can-toss-it-75-yards-with-ease

  15. By Scott H on Mar 22, 2017 | Reply

    Andy KW –

    No argument with what you say in your previous post. BUT you throw the Honey Badger in there as an All-Pro and I do have to object to that. Has he displayed All-Pro ability? Yes, he has. Have we seen that All-Pro ability since the end of the 2015 season? NO, we have not.

    His health / durability issues have made counting on him a risky thing to do.

    Tell me he will be back to his old form come Sept and will be able to sustain it for an entire season and my outlook for 2017 gets a WHOLE lot better. Problem is, you can’t tell me that. So….

  16. By jasonc on Mar 22, 2017 | Reply

    So….you guys hate the Watson pick? The Webb pick? Mel Kiper?

    Was kind of looking for some feedback…

  17. By jasonc on Mar 22, 2017 | Reply

    Scott H-

    I understand your concern about Mathieu and it is a legitimate question. However, the last time he entered the offseason without having to rehab was the 2015 season when he was a DPOY candidate. I have heard stories that he is training hard to not only strengthen his knee but to add overall strength to his frame. That is the difference between an offseason of rehab and an offseason of training. You couple that with his desire to be great and I have high hopes for the Honey Badger.

  18. By JTDG on Mar 22, 2017 | Reply

    jasonc,

    busy day at work.

    Watson;

    The guy is a winner. Reminds me of the heart and attitude of guys like Russell Wilson and Marcus Marriotta. Good guys who are leaders. All they do is just win.

    So, if the cards pulled the trigger on a guy like that, how could you not be behind it.

    Now I love the two QBs at UCLA and USC. So, to me, it might be better to go try and move up next year to get the QB.

    But if they announce, with the 13th pick the AZ cards take Deshaun Watson, I would say it was a pretty good pick.

    Webb. No. Will have to cvome back to tell you why, as I need to run. But Webb is a wasted pick.

  19. By clssylssy on Mar 22, 2017 | Reply

    jasonc…
    As much as I like Tyrann (and I have been watching him since his LSU days, I am a little hestant to expect him to return to his previous form when he was a possible DPOY. He”s had two major knee injuries/surgeries, has spent a lot of time on the couch healing before he could start rehab and then train, he’s older, heavier,and things have changed in his life, which could influence his game. I remember how tentative he played when coming back from his first surgery and think it’s unrealistic to think we will be getting the old kamakazee ballhawk–The Player Formerly Known As The Honey Badger. He can stil be an asset, but we can just wait and hope. Just say’n, I don’t think anyone sees him as less skilled,just maybe wonder what his role will be in his new form

  20. By Martin on Mar 23, 2017 | Reply

    matchaz-

    If any QB would fit BAs system it would be Nathan Peterman. Don’t be surprised if the Cards draft him in the 3rd or 4th round. He runs the only pro offense (Pittsburgh) of all top prospects.

  21. By shooter28 on Mar 23, 2017 | Reply

    With 12 draft picks and 95 Million In Cap Space next season, AZ is going to be ABSOLUTELY LOADED come the 2018 season especially with the players AZ has yet to draft this year still coming !!!!!!! Palmer might decide to stick around for that lol!!!

  22. By shooter28 on Mar 23, 2017 | Reply

    By Scott H on Mar 22, 2017 | Reply
    Andy KW –
    No argument with what you say in your previous post. BUT you throw the Honey Badger in there as an All-Pro and I do have to object to that. Has he displayed All-Pro ability? Yes, he has. Have we seen that All-Pro ability since the end of the 2015 season? NO, we have not.
    His health / durability issues have made counting on him a risky thing to do.
    Tell me he will be back to his old form come Sept and will be able to sustain it for an entire season and my outlook for 2017 gets a WHOLE lot better. Problem is, you can’t tell me that. So….
    _______________________________________________________________

    What a moronic statement to make about Tyrann Mathieu!!!!!!!!

    Mathieu didn’t play at an All-Pro level last season because he was rehabbing from his knee injury that wasn’t repaired surgically until mid way thru December of 2015….. It takes roughly a year , 12 months , for a players knee to completely heal up 100% & for that players knee to get back to where it was pre-injury!!!!!!! Mathieu was never fully recovered last year, which is why they ended up shutting him down not wanting to risk injury, deciding to just save him & his health for 2017!!!!!!!!

    Mathieu is now 110% healthy & completely healed up, he is back on the field able to run, cut, plant, explode & close just like he did before pre-injury. He has posted multiple videos of himself looking just as good if not better than he did before, in prime physical condition!!!!! He has been in the weight room all of season working both his lower & upper body , adding muscle to his legs & 10pds of muscle to his upper body so that he holds up better making the crushing hits so often makes down in the box just destroying people!!!! Mathieu is 5″10 now 207 and and still runs a 4.41 40 time!!!!!

    This next off season Mathieu will have the opportunity to get his body in prime football condition participating in both OTA’s and Training Camp thru the summer knocking the rust off…… Come game 1, Mathieu absolutely will be in Elite form able to play at an All-Pro level , healthy Mathieu is the best FS/CB in the NFL by a wide margin !!!!!!!!!!! Mathieu back 100% fully healthy is a MASSIVE SHOT in the arm for AZs secondary as a whole, with the elite pass rush they now have up front AZs pass defense will be on a whole different level this next season.

  23. By JTDG on Mar 23, 2017 | Reply

    jasonc,

    Davis Webb;

    First, he is a spread offense QB who will have to learn everything that comes with being a pro QB, with taking the ball under center, drop backs, play action with back to defense, then turning back around and reading where to go. Don’t under estimate that.

    Second, in the shot gun, he throws a lot of quick passes, getting the ball out of his hands, and letting the receiver get the yards. Watch his games and many of the passes are 5-8 yards.

    Third, he is inaccurate. even when he completes passes, the receivers are making adjustments. If you struggle with shot gun accuracy, it won’t get better under center.

    Forth, I think when he gets pressure, he tends to panic. He doesn’t reset his feet and make accurate throws.

    For me, I would not trust this guy to line up under center, go play action, seven step drop, set up in the pocket, with pressure all around him, read the field, and hit John Brown on a deep out. If you can’t do that, you can’t play for BA.

  24. By JTDG on Mar 23, 2017 | Reply

    I want to get in on the Tyrann Mathieu argument.

    No one knows what we will get out of the Badger till he is on the field.

    He has worked hard. He added muscle. and everything points to him having a big year.

    But remember, even his big year in 2015, ended with injury.

    That isn’t a knock. It is just fact. He has had surgery on each knee, one because of injury in 2013 and one from his injury in 2015. He has never played 16 games in a season in his 4 years.

    Those are all facts that can’t be denied.

    Now, Badger is heavily counted on this year to come back and be in the 2015 form and avoid injury. From every report out there, he has done everything possible to get his body ready for 2017. The cards need him. He is paid huge money to be on the field.

    Another truth is, his play was subpar last year after coming back from his injury. He did not have a good 2016. There were times he played so poorly, he needed to be replaced. It was sad to watch. And then it ended with injury.

    But for 2017, truth is, only time will tell. I could say he is injury prone or I could rave about the great season he will have, but no one really knows till we watch this season. I hope he is back and stays healthy. That would be fun to watch.

  25. By Scott H on Mar 23, 2017 | Reply

    shooter28 –

    Talk about missing the point. Dude, get as worked up as you want about how the HB is back to being 110% healthy and completely healed. It’s the off-season. Virtually ALL players claim to feel that way during the off-season. It doesn’t matter how healthy he is in March or May or August. What matters is if he can sustain being healthy during the season. And in case ya haven’t noticed, that has been a problem.

    To quote my colleague, JTDG, on the subject of Mathieu – No one knows what we will get out of the Badger till he gets on the field.

    Does it help you get it when it comes from someone else?

    I love Mathieu and you don’t have to sell me on what he is capable of. But durability has been a problem, has it not? If you can’t / don’t appreciate my concern for that, then ignore my posts and move on. I’d rather not be referred to as moronic by someone who can certainly sound that way, too.

  26. By jasonc on Mar 23, 2017 | Reply

    JTDG-

    It’s crazy how eloquent and reasonable you are when writing player talent evaluations. When you write about trades, free agency, or the draft and you’re playing general manager you go full georgiebird on me.

    I agree with your evaluation of Davis Webb but aren’t all of the top 5 guys in the same situation when it comes to playing from the shotgun? At least Webb went to the Senior Bowl and showed he can operate from under center.

    My reasoning behind Webb is that he would be the highest rated QB when we pick in the second round if we don’t make any moves up or down via trades. Since I think Watson will be gone before we pick in the first, and he is the only QB I think is worthy of that pick, then I believe we would miss out on a top 5 QB (Watson, Trubisky, Mahomes, Kizer, Webb) and, statistically, it is bad business to try and find a franchise type QB after the first two rounds. Webb is 6’5 229, has the ability to throw the deep ball, and appears to be a student of the game with a high football IQ.

    Without making up a trade what would you like to see the Cards do with the first two rounds?

  27. By jasonc on Mar 23, 2017 | Reply

    Tyrann Mathieu-

    I agree with the caution that JTDG, Scott H, and clssylssy have expressed and you guys are right. Ty has had injury issues and there is no evidence that he will be the same player this year that he was in 2015 nor is there any way to predict he can finish the season.

    However, he is not old (even by NFL standards) so I don’t think his age is a factor in his ability to recover from injury. He had a subpar 2014 when he came back from his first knee injury after an impressive rookie year. A full offseason of training and he was a DPOY candidate in 2015. He suffered another heartbreaking non-contact knee injury after a great interception against Philly at the end of 2015 which caused his offseason to be committed to rehab. Another subpar season in 2016. This offseason he back in full training.

    While there are no facts to prove to you that he will return with a vengeance this season, there is some evidence to propose that there is a chance.

    I just don’t understand why you guys are so glum about the prospect of him returning to full Honey Badger status when as you all say it is still up in the air.

  28. By JTDG on Mar 23, 2017 | Reply

    Jasonc

    Mathieu;

    Can only speak for myself.
    But if something happens 4 years in a row, don’t you start assuming it is a pattern?

    And like you, I think Badger comes out blazing. I think he regains his form and plays well. But the question is, will he finish? Can he play 16 games plus playoffs if we make it? That is a huge question.

    Furthermore, don’t you have to have someone behind him, to step in if history repeats?

    Finally, if he plays 10 games and gets injured, can you keep him on the team with a 14 million cap hit in 2018?

    These are all huge questions.
    So when I say we need to wait and see, the doubts justifiable.
    I hope he comes out and puts all those questions to rest.

  29. By JTDG on Mar 23, 2017 | Reply

    Jasonc,

    GM vs Draft;

    My comments are long enough. To go into everything needed to show offseason free agency, it would take up more room then Darren would like. So, you get the readers digest version.

    As for Webb, I get the thought process behind it. I just don’t see Webb as a starter in the NFL.

    I could see Kizer figure it out. I think Watson is like Wilson , Dak, Marriota are all guys who aren’t going to carry a team. But with players around them, they can shine.

    But got to say, I am already hearing the “suck for Luck” chanters trying to come up with something for Darnald. Nothing is catchy with his last name, but NFL network had a couple guys saying Jets brought in McCown to go for the 2018 first pick. Also heard the number one QB talked about at the combine was Sam and he wasn’t there.

    So pray the bad teams take QBs early so we could trade a boatload of picks and players for him and forget drafting a QB in 2017

  30. By jasonc on Mar 24, 2017 | Reply

    JTDG-

    So your official position on us acquiring a future franchise QB is not to draft one this year, have a pretty terrible season, and then plan to trade a king’s ransom of players and draft picks in the hopes that a team with a QB already on their roster has the #1 overall pick and allows us to trade up?

    If Sam Darnalod is going to be as good as everyone thinks he is who would trade that pick? If you have the first overall selection obviously things aren’t going the way you’d like them too, and now you have the chance to draft a guy who is going to be the greatest thing since sliced bread. Why wouldn’t you draft the kid and trade the incumbent? Look at what teams gave up to draft RG III, Wentz, and Goff…all guys who weren’t Elway or Luck type evaluations.

    I’m sorry buddy that honestly sounds like a terrible plan. The only way we get the opportunity to draft Sam Darnold (if he is as good as they are saying) is to earn the right to draft him by having a disastrous season.

  31. By JTDG on Mar 24, 2017 | Reply

    jasonc,

    No, I want to win the Super Bowl in 2017. I never said for us to have a terrible season. Not sure why you are saying that?

    I also think there are at least 3 QBs who are better in 2018 than this year.
    The kid from UCLA is pretty good, as is Mason Rudolph. Haven’t watched Luke Falk much, but hear he is pretty good. The kid from Pitt might rise up this year. Just like that draft better.

    Why take a QB this year, when you feel better options are out there in 2018.
    I think you are forcing it to take a QB before round 2 and the only two QBs I would consider with the 45th pick is Kizer and Watson.

    But since you asked, if you wanted a far out plan to get Sam.

    I want to draft CBs in this draft. I think, trading down and getting extra picks is the smartest move. If you could land a player like Marlon Humphries late in round one and the grab a Sidney Jones with one of you second round picks, then you will be in good position to trade up next year.

    Who will be the worst team? Hard to say. The Jets (who I think take Trubisky with the 6th pick) are in the running. If the Jets have their QB, they may be open to move the #1 pick.

    The question is, what are the Browns doing at QB? If they trade for Garappalo, they could be set. The niners could land the Washington QB.
    The rams have Goff.

    So, if I have to guess today, a team lacking in DBs, no outside pass rushers, young receivers and a questionable oline , who takes a rookie QB in round 1, I will say the Jets will have the first pick in 2018.

    So now, you could offer players, such as Patrick Peterson/Tyrann Mathieu/Deone Bucannon, coupled with multiple draft picks, to move up and get the next Andrew Luck.

    Well, if you draft right in 2017.

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