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Cardinals’ 2019 comp pick estimate: Just one

Posted by Darren Urban on May 8, 2018 – 1:47 pm

Today is the deadline for free agents signed counting for or against a team’s compensatory pick haul for the 2019 draft. The Cardinals benefited greatly in 2018 with comp picks, earning three comp picks (and ultimately using all, to choose OL Mason Cole, RB Chase Edmonds and OL Korey Cunningham.) Next year, it won’t quite be the same.

According to Nick Korte of overthecap.com, the Cardinals — based on their free agent gains and losses this year — will get a lone extra seventh-round pick, attached to the departure of wide receiver Jaron Brown to the Seahawks. Three other losses qualified as potential seventh-rounders: quarterbacks Blaine Gabbert (to Tennessee) and Matt Barkley (Cincinnati), and offensive lineman Earl Watford (Chicago). But none figure to earn picks because there are only 32 comp picks awarded and all three fall in at 33 or higher.

(The Cards lost a couple of higher-value free agents but those are canceled out by the ones they signed themselves. And as always, players that had been cut — like Tyrann Mathieu — do not qualify in the equation.)

The list can change slightly depending on how much some guys play or if they are released. But it’s usually a pretty close estimate of where we will be when comp picks are revealed in late February or so.


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Peterson, comp picks and Cards’ draft ammunition

Posted by Darren Urban on January 25, 2018 – 9:57 am

The Saints acknowledged that they will indeed get that conditional draft pick from the Cardinals — expected to be a sixth-rounder — in the trade for Adrian Peterson. With the draft in April and the announcements of this year’s compensatory picks (based on 2017 free agency) coming in late March, here is an early look at what draft picks the Cards could hold this season.

Already gone are the Cardinals’ original fourth-round pick (dealt in the Bears trade that allowed them to move up for Budda Baker in the second round last season), original sixth-rounder (for Peterson) and seventh-rounder (in the 2016 trade with Chiefs for cornerback Marcus Cooper.) The Cardinals also acquired a conditional seventh-round pick from the Ravens for offensive lineman Tony Bergstrom at the end of training camp, but given that Bergstrom was released about six weeks later, it’s unclear whether that pick conveys.

On the plus side, the Cards are in line for three comp picks, according to overthecap.com, which always has a pretty good handle on the byzantine equation the NFL uses to determine comp picks. It’s based on free agents lost versus free agents gained, using contract numbers and snaps. According to OTC, the loss of Calais Campbell would earn the Cards the top comp pick in the third round (all comp picks are slotted after the regular round ends), the loss of Tony Jefferson would earn the Cards the top comp pick in the fourth round, and the loss of Alex Okafor would earn them an additional seventh-round pick.

The FA losses of D.J. Swearinger, Cooper and Kevin Minter are offset by the signings of Phil Dawson, Peterson and Karlos Dansby.

Peterson wasn’t a free agent signing, you say? He was with the Saints. The trade for Peterson looks like it could actually ding the Cards in two ways — not only costing the sixth-rounder in trade, but also a potential sixth-round comp pick because he was acquired in the season in which he was signed as a free agent. (This is one of the reasons it’s been reported that the 49ers released QB Brian Hoyer as they traded for Jimmy Garoppolo from the Patriots. The Patriots wanted Hoyer, but to get him back in a trade after he signed as a free agent with the 49ers would have hurt the Pats in the comp pick equation. With the 49ers cutting him, there was no such issue.)

So, if the projections are right, the Cards picks are:

— First round
— Second round
— 2 Third rounds (comp)
— Fourth round (comp)
— Fifth round
— Seventh round (comp, and maybe a regular seventh-round if Bergstrom trade comes through)


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Comp picks look good after deadline

Posted by Darren Urban on May 9, 2017 – 4:23 pm

Tuesday was an important day for the Cardinals. In an offseason when the Cards seemed to play for the comp pick game — losing several key free agents, and signing back newcomers strategically — Tuesday marked the final day where the signing of someone on the open market would count against a team in the formula for compensatory draft picks.

Nick Korte over at overthecap.com has been following the comp pick situation. While the actual formula is a secret, some, including Korte, have seemingly gotten at least a little bit of a handle on it. As of now, the estimation is that for the 2018 draft the Cardinals will get an extra third-round pick (because of losing Calais Campbell), an extra fourth-round pick (for losing Tony Jefferson) and two extra sixth-round picks (for losing Marcus Cooper and D.J. Swearinger.)

The picks can shift based on playing time and other factors. If one of these players flames out and is cut by midseason, that will impact things. But for now, this is what it looks like. The hefty contracts received by Campbell and Jefferson likely lock in those picks — Campbell’s deal, actually, was the richest handed out in free agency. By far.

As a recap, the Cardinals currently have five of their own picks remaining for the 2018 draft: First, second, third, fifth and sixth rounds. They traded away their fourth-rounder in order to trade up for Budda Baker, and dealt the seventh-rounder last year when they acquired Cooper. So that would give them nine picks total if they get all four comp picks (the maximum number of comp picks a team can receive.)

Again, the most important part of the news now is that no more free agents (not players cut, which is why signing Antoine Bethea never counted against the Cardinals’ formula) the Cards sign will count against the equation. So if there are any Steve Keim specials from here on out, no comp pick impact.


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Estimating the Cardinals’ comp picks

Posted by Darren Urban on March 20, 2017 – 11:41 am

A team can have up to four compensatory draft picks — extra picks a team gets when it loses more free agents than it signs — in a year. While the comp picks, maxed out at 32 across the league, are a moving target for now with free agency ongoing, the Cardinals seem to be in line for four extra choices. The actual formula remains a secret, but enough people have been working on it enough that a general idea of where the picks land can be estimated. Overthecap.com credits the Cardinals (as of now) with an extra third-rounder, an extra fourth-rounder, an extra fifth-rounder and an extra sixth-rounder in the 2018 draft.

Calais Campbell nets the third-round pick. Tony Jefferson the fourth-rounder. Marcus Cooper gets a fifth-rounder, and although the loss of D.J. Swearinger is canceled out by the signing of kicker Phil Dawson, Kevin Minter’s departure gets a sixth-rounder. The losses of Earl Watford and Alex Okafor are offset by the signings of Karlos Dansby and Jarvis Jones.

Again, this is an estimation. The league doesn’t release the formula, and other things eventually can be involved, including playing time and postseason honors. But if the Cards end up with four extra picks, that wouldn’t be too bad. There doesn’t seem to be much percolating with any new signings right now, which would mean more extra picks at this time next year.


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With FA losses, comp picks in play for Cards

Posted by Darren Urban on March 14, 2017 – 10:03 am

The Cardinals would’ve liked to keep Calais Campbell. And Tony Jefferson (or D.J. Swearinger), and Marcus Cooper too. But the prices got to be a lot larger than the team wanted to pay, and there was a flip side to those players defecting — and to the way the Cardinals have looked at bringing in free agents themselves over the last few days: Compensatory picks.

Comp picks are the extra selections at the end of each round, starting in the third, that teams get after all the free agent comings and goings are tallied. The NFL keeps the formula for comp picks secret, although a) it’s determined by each team’s free agents losses and gains, along with the size of those players’ new contracts, plus playing time and postseason honors; and b) there are only so many in a draft.

(This was made painfully clear to the Cardinals recently. The Cardinals get an extra fifth-round pick in the 2017 draft next month, and they had qualified for three other extra seventh-round picks — but the NFL caps the total number of comp picks at 32, and since teams across the league qualified for 39 total, the last seven didn’t count. The extra three of the Cards’ picks fell in that last seven “dead zone.”)

There are other things that dictate the comings-and-goings part of the comp pick equation. Players who are in the league 10 years or more don’t matter as much (so the Cards aren’t really hurt by the “coming” of Karlos Dansby, who was basically canceled out by the “going” of Alex Okafor to the Saints). This only applies to free agents who had contracts expire (so Antoine Bethea, cut by San Francisco, does not count in the equation.)

A team would max out with four comp picks in any given draft. Right now, it looks like the Cardinals would be in line for four — four pretty good ones. Those that break this down (the best they can, given the secrecy of the exact formula) estimate the Cardinals gaining potentially two third-round picks in 2018, plus a couple of others. Even if one of the picks isn’t a third but a fourth, plus a couple of other later ones in the fifth- or sixth-round to get to the maximum four, it would give the Cardinals a lot of firepower in the 2018 draft. (If it played out like that, it’d be 10 draft picks, because the Cards traded their 2018 seventh-rounder to Kansas City for Cooper).

Nothing is set in stone, but the money is a big driver in comp picks and at this point, you figure the big money in free agency is already gone. If the Cards were going to lose high-profile free agents, they at least figure to get something out of it.


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The gains and losses of free agency

Posted by Darren Urban on May 18, 2015 – 10:44 am

The Cardinals signed linebacker Darryl Sharpton last week and the timing meant something. By signing Sharpton Wednesday, the Cardinals cleared the date for free agents signing counting against them for next year’s compensatory pick equation. Any free agent signed at the point will not count.

(The Cardinals were awarded one comp pick this past draft; they ended up with the final selection of the whole thing, which they used on Lousiville tight end Gerald Christian.)

It’s too early to know exactly how the comp pick equation might play out. Part of how it’s determined is playing time in the upcoming season. It also takes into account how much money for which each player signed. A quick look at who the Cardinals could have counting for and against them in the comp pick equation next draft. As always, a quick reminder that if a player was cut by the Cards or cut by another team, he does not qualify on these lists. For example, losing Darnell Dockett does not factor in because Dockett was released.:

FREE AGENTS GAINED

G Mike Iupati (5 years, $40M)
DT Corey Peters (3 years, $10.5M)
DE Cory Redding (2 years, $6M)
LB Sean Weatherspoon (1 year, $3.6M)

FREE AGENTS LOST

LB Sam Acho (1 year, $825,000)
CB Antonio Cromartie (4 years, $32M)
G Paul Fanaika (3 years, $6.1M)
TE Rob Housler (1 year, $1.76M)
DT Dan Williams (4 years, $25M)

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see GM Steve Keim make another signing (or two) at some point before camp, or even into camp. But the numbers are set for the compensatory math.

FAcompblog


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Cardinals know all their draft picks UPDATE

Posted by Darren Urban on March 24, 2015 – 8:57 pm

The NFL released the full draft order for next month’s draft, and here are the Cardinals’ eight selections. UPDATE: The league acknowledged some mistakes in a few comp picks, so the overall order has changed one of the Cardinals’ selections:

Round 1: 24th overall
Round 2: 55th
Round 3: 86th
Round 4: 123rd
Round 5: 159th
Round 6: 197th 198th
Round 7: 241st, 256th

The final selection is the final pick of the draft — Mr. Irrelevant — and as a compensatory pick cannot be traded. All the other choices are the Cards’ original picks and are in play if General Manager Steve Keim wants to flip them in a deal.


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Cards’ comp pick means Mr. Irrelevant

Posted by Darren Urban on March 23, 2015 – 6:21 pm

The Cardinals were awarded one compensatory pick in April’s draft — an extra seventh-round pick that just happens to be the final selection of the draft. That’s right, the Cards will get 2015’s Mr. Irrelevant. (And they will too, because comp picks cannot be traded.) It means the Cardinals will have eight draft picks instead of just seven, although trades could change that number.

Officially, in the comp pick equation, the Cardinals added Jared Veldheer, Ted Ginn and Ted Larsen in 2014, and lost Antoine Cason, Jim Dray, Andre Roberts and Karlos Dansby.

The last time the Cardinals got Mr. Irrelevant? That was 2001, when they took BYU tight end Tevita Ofahengaue. That was memorable for me because on the conference call, we asked him how to pronounce his name. “Oh-fen-hen-NOW-way,” he said. Then there was a pause. “Simple,” he added. “Like John Smith.”


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A chance at a comp pick

Posted by Darren Urban on March 18, 2015 – 12:26 pm

The spring owners meetings get underway Monday here in town at the Biltmore, and among the many things that will go on will be the annual reveal of the compensatory picks for April’s draft.

A quick refresher for those who don’t know about comp picks: Each year, there are a bunch of extra draft picks sprinkled in through the draft (starting in the third round) that are awarded to teams with a net loss of free agents from the year before. The exact formula for doling out picks isn’t public, but it’s a mixture of the player, his free agent contract and performance. Basically, if you lose more free agents than you sign, you’ll get an extra pick or two.

(Or more, perhaps. Baltimore often lets players leave as free agents with the idea of stockpiling comp picks to replenish the roster with cheap labor. It’s great if you hit on many draft picks. The Ravens have made it an art form.)

As for the Cardinals, overthecap.com has estimated that the Cards are in line for an extra seventh-round pick. Now, there are caveats to the various qualifying players in this admittedly complicated guesswork. The Cards could conceivably get an extra fifth-rounder instead of a seventh or maybe no comp pick at all. As it stands, the Cardinals have their seven original draft picks, starting with the 24th overall in the first round. Last season, the Cardinals added tackle Jared Veldheer, wide receiver Ted Ginn, guard Ted Larsen and running back Jonathan Dwyer in free agency. They lost linebacker Karlos Dansby, wide receiver Andre Roberts, tight end Jim Dray and cornerbacks Antoine Cason and Javier Arenas. (Players that are cut by their previous team do not factor in the equation, which is why bringing in Antonio Cromartie did not hurt the Cards in this example and why losing Darnell Dockett this year will not help in next year’s comp equation.)


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On comp picks and TD “dunks”

Posted by Darren Urban on March 25, 2014 – 11:03 am

A few things as the owners meetings continue in Florida and things around the Cardinals’ Tempe complex have slowed down considerably:

— The Cardinals, as expected, did not receive a compensatory draft pick, meaning they still have six selections in May’s draft (the seventh round pick went to Oakland in the Carson Palmer trade.) The first three picks are No. 20, No. 52 and No. 84 overall. It is not surprising the Cards didn’t get any comp picks.

A quick review: Teams get comp picks based on a formula that starts with the free agents signed and free agents lost from the previous offseason. Included in the NFL’s secret formula are the size of the contracts signed by those players and various honors they earn that season. So the comp picks for the 2014 draft are based on the 2013 offseason, and so forth. If you come out “negatively” in the formula and seem to have lost more than you gained in free agency, you get as many as four extra comp picks. Those picks can come at the end of the third round at the earliest and cannot be traded.

Looking ahead, there will be a chance the Cards could come up with a comp pick next year. It’ll depend on the rest of the offseason and what all these players do. Something to keep in mind: Only true free agents — those whose contracts expired — count in the formula. That means the Cards’ signings of tight end John Carlson and cornerback Antonio Cromartie will not hurt them because those players were free because they were released, not because their contracts ran out. On the flip side, if Daryn Colledge signs somewhere, he won’t help the cause.

So for those scoring at home, the Cards (in comp pick math) have added Jared Veldheer, Ted Ginn, Ted Larsen and Jonathan Dwyer. They have lost Karlos Dansby, Andre Roberts, Javier Arenas, Antoine Cason and Jim Dray. Veldheer signed a pricey contract, but so did Dansby and Roberts. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

— The NFL will be tweaking a few rules. The biggest one is outlawing the dunk of the football on the goalpost. There’s been a lot of blowback on this, but truthfully, as soon as Jimmy Graham bent the crossbar last season and delayed a game while it was fixed, you knew it was a matter of time before the NFL said no more.

Also coming is the ability for a central replay booth based in New York to begin video replays before a referee even gets under the hood, hopefully to speed up the process and to let the official know for what exactly to be looking. The referee on-site will still make the final call.

FloyddunkUSE

 


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