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Tackle situation shows why you don’t fall in love

One of the clichés that always floats around at draft time is that a team never ever ever should fall in love with a player. I mean, if you’re picking No. 1, fine. But otherwise, there is always a risk that said player or players isn’t going to be there. And you don’t want to be disappointed or let the emotion of losing out on such a crush drive you to do something dumb when you are on the clock.

That crossed my mind this morning when NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock talked about what has become a growing sentiment — that all three high-end offensive tackles available: Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson — will all be off the board by the time the Cardinals pick at No. 7. Let’s make this clear, no one knows for sure the Cards even like all three at that point, although it stands to reason they do. For a while, it was people thinking Fisher would be there and Joeckel wouldn’t. Then it was Fisher being gone and Johnson being the consideration. But there is a strong likelihood that the Chiefs take Joeckel at No. 1 (KC wants to trade Branden Albert) and the Eagles (No. 4) and the Lions (No. 5) both easily could take the other two tackles. Even if one lasts to No. 6, the next scenario could be the Browns trading out of No. 6 to the Chargers or Dolphins, both of whom need a left tackle like Johnson (pictured below).

Now, the Dolphins are talking with the Chiefs about the Albert trade, which would take them out of the mix. But the Chargers, picking 11th, could try to jump up (with Ken Whisenhunt’s new team potentially stealing a tackle out from under his old team.)

What does this all mean? Well, this is operating under the assumption the Cards are focusing on a tackle. That was the thought last year too and they took Michael Floyd over Riley Reiff, so there’s that. I don’t see the Cards trading up and surrendering a pick, although I’m not positive on that. If all the tackles are off the board in the top five, I could definitely see the Cards trying to trade down a little, although other than the tackles, I don’t know who would trade up. And again, if three tackles go off the board that early, someone is sitting there that hadn’t been expected. Will it be someone the Cards want?

– As long as we are talking about potential picks at No. 7, we have our annual mock draft contest ready for play right here. Hope you decide to take a crack at who you think the Cardinals will select.

Spoiler alert

The playoffs are a long-ago dream, but the Cardinals still can have a hand in it. This week, the Bears — reeling as they are — come to town losers of 5 of their last six after a 7-1 start. Once the playoffs seemed a foregone conclusion. But if Minnesota pulls off an upset in Houston in an early game Sunday, then the Cardinals would eliminate the Bears from the postseason if they can beat Jay Cutler’s crew.

“In order for us to be relevant, we have to win,” Bears coach Lovie Smith said. “This time of year everybody knows what has to happen for their football team. We are aware of the path we have to take.”

The Cards actually could be in position to do some damage in both the final two games. In the finale at San Francisco, the 49ers could have something on the line. If the Niners lose in Seattle this weekend, they could actually lose the division title the following week if the Cards won. Even if the Niners clinch this weekend by toppling the Seahawks, San Francisco will likely have a chance to clinch a first-round bye on the line in the final week.

What’s amazing is the difference a week makes. The Lions, playing poorly, came into University of Phoenix Stadium as the favorite last week because the Cardinals were on their nine-game losing streak. Now, it seems, many believe the Cardinals have a good shot to knock off the Bears and cripple their playoff chances. At this point, it’s what the Cards have to play for.

Lions aftermath

Adrian Wilson was one of the players from the very first Cardinals’ draft class I covered from draft day on (I began chronicling the Cards right before training camp the year before). I’ve known him his whole NFL career. It made me smile Sunday when, as he began to cry during his press conference – not waterworks, mind you, but clearly tearing up – and said “Believe it or not, I’m a very emotional person.”

Maybe those who see him from afar only on the field might think that, might think he’s one of those stereotypical players who crush opponents for a living without feeling. Anyone who has been around him at all knows he’s the ultimate emotional guy. It’s always on his sleeve. Sometimes he may not want to talk about whatever publicly (and even then, the message is sent) but you never once are doubting what kind of mood he is in.

Those tears Sunday represented relief and sadness at once. His lost playing time has been hard on him, and that caught up to him after notching his sack Sunday that made him the sixth member of the 25-25 club (Wilson has 27 interceptions and 25½ sacks). His NFL mortality crawls closer, and he knows what that means. But it was also about the weight lifted off the shoulders of a team burdened by a nine-game losing streak. The game in Seattle was a bomb dropped on a team and a defense that was already reeling. The Cards recovered nicely Sunday.

And it wasn’t a surprise to see A-Dub a little overwhelmed because of it.

– Calais Campbell was a monster against the Lions, and believe it or not, he said he’s still not 100 percent. It just shows how much he means to this defense when he is playing well, and how well he fits into this scheme. After everything that has happened the last couple of weeks, it was noticeable that, when asked about Campbell’s dominance, coach Ken Whisenhunt also said Darnell Dockett played well too.

– Patrick Peterson got his shot at Calvin Johnson and did very well. Johnson got his numbers but Peterson’s one interception was a bigger play than anything Johnson did and of course, Peterson got the win.

– Yes, the Cardinals “hurt” their draft status with a win. But please, spare me the “they can’t even lose right” comments. They are in this to win games. It’s one of the reasons I have no desire to get into draft talk until the season is over. Let’s see where everything settles, and then we can discuss what players might be available, etc.

– It’s not why the Pick-6s happened, but noteworthy that both players who returned interceptions for touchdowns Sunday – cornerback Greg Toler and safety Rashad Johnson (below) – are going to be unrestricted free agents after the season. The Cardinals have to make a decision on whether they want to bring either back.

– Easily the hardest I’ve seen Beanie Wells run this season, and that’s not a knock on effort but a note on health. He had a couple runs where he just moved the pile. His per-carry average wasn’t great (3.9) but he scored three touchdowns and again, gained yards in short-yardage situations.

– Punter Dave Zastudil, who has been a workhorse because of the offensive struggles this season, has been fantastic this year. He set a team record Sunday with six punts downed inside the 20-yard line.

– Ryan Lindley really didn’t play that much different than he had previous. He had 104 yards passing, and after an early bad interception, he didn’t turn the ball over. The reshuffled offensive line kept him upright (one sack). He didn’t do anything to make you think he’s the QB of the future, but he didn’t do anything to make you think he won’t start against the Bears next week.

– Fitz did get four catches after just six in the previous four games. It was just for 22 yards, but baby steps. Besides, Fitz was happy. “Christmas came early here in the desert,” Fitz said. “Santa made a delivery at University of Phoenix Stadium and we are all happy with the gift we received. It’s incomprehensible what we’ve been going through the last couple of weeks. Nine weeks in a row to not come out with a win, it feels good to be back home and get a win.”

Friday before the Lions

Sunday, the Cardinals have a chance to fully wipe away last weekend’s loss in Seattle. But that’s all it was, a loss, and given the tragic events in Connecticut today, it’s difficult to get worked up over it as any more than that. The Lions come to town also as a 4-9 team, and this is one – if the Cardinals are going to get one – to get. Ryan Lindley will be back at QB, and if he can play more like the guy in the first 30 minutes of his lone start at University of Phoenix Stadium and not the last 30 minutes, the Cards should have a chance. I definitely don’t see the defense melting down again.

– It’s amazing, and I know it’s because of the quarterback situation, but there has been very little discussion about the Cards’ offensive line in recent weeks. The unit is far from perfect, but rookie tackles Bobby Massie and Nate Potter have been doing well enough. Coach Ken Whisenhunt wouldn’t disclose who the new starting center will be Sunday – “I think we need every little element of surprise that we can get. We can certainly use it,” Whisenunt said – but we’ll see if that group can hold up.

– As for needing a new center, “there’s continuity with the quarterback and the snaps and that’s something you can’t always simulate or get in practice,” Whisenhunt said. “We’ve struggled with that a little bit the last couple of games with adjusting to (now injured) Rich (Ohrnberger). Then just when he starts to get comfortable and you feel good about that, he goes out.”

– The Lions have a good defensive line, although with DT Nick Fairley doubtful and unlikely to play, the Cardinals catch the break. They still have ends Cliff Avril and nearing-the-end Kyle Vanden Bosch, the one-time Cardinal. They have defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who can be dominant at times. It will be a good test for the Cards’ line.

– On the flip side, the Lions’ secondary isn’t stellar. If Larry Fitzgerald is going to be anything more than a leader for this team and actually contribute to the offense on the field, Lindley hopefully can make that happen this week.

– Speaking of Fitz, I’m not sure acting is in his future.

– He turned 91 today, so former Cardinals star back Charley Trippi can’t help on the field, but he will be at UoP Sunday so the team can celebrate his career and his place in the Ring of Honor. If you don’t know about Trippi, check out Josh Weinfuss’ great story.

– FYI, the security screening locations will be opening early (10:45 a.m.) for both the Detroit and Chicago games, with portable food and beverage stands open on the plaza for those that get there early. Actual stadium access for non-premium seat holders remains the same (90 minutes before kickoff).

– There is a toy drive at the game. Bring unwrapped toys and donations to any stadium entrance to help needy children at this time of year.

– Speaking of good stories, all the state high school championship football teams will be honored Sunday, including Queen Creek High School. If you haven’t heard, the Queen Creek team befriended a very special girl this season, and she too will be at the festivities. Check out the story – although it might get a little dusty wherever you are.

– Because people want to know, here is an early list of offensive free agents-to-be. Chew on that if you’d like.

– Finally, I just want to send thoughts and prayers to those affected in the Connecticut shootings. It’s been tough making sense of writing about football today given what happened, especially when I think of my own kids and my wife – who is a teacher – and worrying about what could happen to them.

Just remember there are bigger things when we sit here and talk about football losses or bad play or whether someone should be fired. I’m not saying you can’t say that. This is a site about the Cardinals and that’s what we all talk about. I’m just asking to be civil when talking about it, when addressing others, when criticizing players, coaches or management. We are all just people — fans, me, guys on the team — trying to get along here. The vitriol isn’t necessary to get the point across. If it’s frustrating you that much, imagine what some back East are going through this weekend.

That’s it. I’m climbing off the soapbox. On to Sunday.

Youth is served

Football Outsiders, via the ESPN Insider area, has put together NFL rankings of the 32 teams based on the quality of players each team has of players 25 years old and younger. The list does have influences beyond just age, among them whether the young players starting last season were doing so out of talent or just being an injury replacement, how much those young players impact the passing game (because that’s where the league is headed) and if a team has a talented young quarterback.

The Patriots are No. 1, the Lions No. 2 (two teams the Cards play this season). The Cardinals are 17th on the list. Unfortunately, NFC West rivals are higher. The 49ers are 15th, the Seahawks 12th. (The Rams are 24th.) As always, these are subjective opinions, but the analysis of the Cards reads:

“This all starts with CB Patrick Peterson. It’s not often you find a player with the talent to both cover No. 1 receivers and return punts at a high level, and we nudged Arizona up accordingly. With LBs Sam Acho and O’Brien Schofield having another year of NFL experience under their belt, odds are the Cardinals will generate a better pass rush than they did last season. Dan Williams had a down year, but he’s still one of the more physically gifted nose tackles in the game. The offense isn’t as settled, but what’s impressive is the sheer number of NFL-caliber players they can throw at you: QB John Skelton, WR Andre Roberts, WR Michael Floyd, TE Rob Housler and RBs Beanie Wells and LaRod Stephens-Howling. We have to reward that quantity, even if most of that group hasn’t made a huge impact yet.”

Building through youth and the draft is the only way to really create any kind of sustained long-term success in this league. I am shocked, to be honest, that LB Daryl Washington — still 25 — is not on the list. Out of every young player the Cards have, I’d put Washington right below Peterson.

Schofield is also 14th on an accompanying list of under-the-radar top prospect list (players drafted in the third round or later.)

Breaking down draft order, 2011 schedule

With one game left — and the Cards safely out of the playoff picture — it’s a lot easier to narrow down some key portions of 2011 concerning both draft position and the schedule.

– As for the draft, the Cardinals have four teams with worse records than their own 5-10 mark. Arizona is one of seven teams with five wins. But as of right now, the Cardinals are fifth overall in the draft and “first” among those seven teams because of the Cards’ weak strength of schedule (Draft position is not broken by head-to-head or various playoff-type tiebreakers but instead the inverse — the weaker the opponents you played were, the higher pick, because the thought process is if your record is the same against weaker opponents, you are considered the weaker team and in need of a higher pick).

The Cardinals’ strength-of-schedule is so weak, in fact, that no matter any team(s) they end up tied with in the draft position, they will be choosing higher. So, for instance, even if the Cards beat the 49ers this weekend and the Seahawks lose and both the Cards and Seahawks finish with six wins, the Cards will be slotted higher in the draft. (Of course, beating the 49ers will mean the Cards end up with a better record than San Francisco, meaning the Niners will of course be ahead in the order).

Looking over the standings, the “lowest” the Cardinals will be picking will be 11th in the draft. If the Cardinals beat San Francisco, the Niners would be “ahead” of the Cards, while of the other five teams who have five wins, four could lose (two of the five-win teams play each other, Minnesota at Detroit, and I am assuming the Vikings lose in Philadelphia tomorrow night). Cleveland (hosting Pittsburgh), Dallas (at Philly) and Houston (hosting Jacksonville) are the other five-win teams.

If the Cards lose to the 49ers, they could still in theory have as high as the No. 2 pick in the draft, but that would mean Denver (hosting San Diego), Cincinnati (at Baltimore) and Buffalo (at the Jets) all won this weekend. Carolina has already clinched Andrew Lu, errr, the No. 1 pick overall.

– As for the schedule, that is always all but set. In cement are home games against the three NFC West foes, Dallas, the Giants, Cleveland and Pittsburgh. The Cardinals will go on the road to the three NFC West opponents, Philadelphia, Washington, Baltimore and Cincinnati.

The remaining road/home games set up like this: If the Cards win, they will host Tampa Bay again. (UPDATE: My mistake — if the Saints lose tonight and then the Buccaneers beat the Saints next week, the Cards would host the Saints again next year in this scenario). If they lose, the extra home game will be Carolina.

For the final road game, a Cardinal win means the Cards will play at the winner of this weekend’s Minnesota-Detroit game. A loss in San Francisco means they will travel to the loser of the Vikings-Lions.

– UPDATE II: For those confused about why the schedule, for instance, has the Cards hosting Pittsburgh again after the Steelers came in 2007 and the Cards last went to Pittsburgh in 2003, here was the info I received on the subject from the league:

“You need to look at the scheduling formula on a larger scale. it’s not as simple as just alternating the home games for every opponent – the math would not work out that way. The formula is set so that you’ll play all non-division conference opponents at least one every three years and at home at least once every six years. Also, keep in mind for non-division opponents in the conference, you’re rotating three divisions over a period of time, so if you take the original eight-year rotation, the math doesn’t work out so that it’s a straight alternating system. So by just taking selective end points and asking about ’04, ’07 and ’10, you’re not looking at a complete picture.”

Under the formula, every team within a division plays 16 games as follows:

• Home and away against its three division opponents (6 games).

• The four teams from another division within its conference on a rotating three-year cycle (4 games).

• The four teams from a division in the other conference on a rotating four-year cycle (4 games).

• Two intraconference games based on the prior year’s standings (2 games).  These games match a first-place team against the first-place teams in the two same-conference divisions the team is not scheduled to play that season.  The second-place, third-place, and fourth-place teams in a conference are matched in the same way each year.

Lions aftermath

So what was Sunday, exactly?

Was it the scary way the Cards managed to come up with a win in Detroit? Was it, ultimately, the fact they won the game and turned it into the NFC West title by the end of the night (pictures from the flight home are right here)? A little of both, I suppose. The Lions, by the end, were using a third-string quarterback, a second-string running back and couldn’t get the ball to star wideout Calvin Johnson. Mistakes were made. Yet the Cards ended up with a victory. That wasn’t the team that took apart the Vikings on “Sunday Night Football” but it wasn’t the team that played in San Francisco either.

If it makes any frustrated fans out there feel better, there’s was enough concern lingering in the locker room to make sure the close call won’t go for naught.

“As a team, we have to know, being who we are, we’re going to get it every week,” wide receiver Steve Breaston said. “That is what we have to understand.”

“We’ve got to look at this film, look at the second half and look ourselves in the mirror,” safety Adrian Wilson said. “We’ve got some good team coming up so we can’t continue to shoot ourselves in the foot.”

With the one-win Rams coming in to University of Phoenix Stadium this week, everyone will be looking for domination. That may or may not happen, but maybe it’s something the Cards strive for as they gear up for what is now a guaranteed playoff berth.

– Wilson is thisclose to reaching the 20/20 club for career sacks and interceptions. He got to 19½ sacks Sunday when he got a half, splitting one with Clark Haggans. “I ain’t tripping off that,” Wilson said. “It’s a half. I’ll continue to work. Sooner or later, it’ll come around.”

– The Cardinals faced four third-and-1 plays Sunday. Beanie Wells lost three yards on the first, Kurt Warner was sacked for a loss of eight on the second, Wells was stuffed for no gain on the third. The fourth was a nine-yard swing pass to running back Tim Hightower. But the Cards obviously need to get better on converting those, and it was one of the reasons their offense had so many fits and starts.

– Wells was very, very good Sunday. I will now get a bunch of e-mails/blog questions/Tweets asking me if he will replace Hightower in the starting lineup. I doubt it, and the only reason I am not saying it definitely won’t happen is because you can never say never. But as I have said many times, I don’t think coach Ken Whisenhunt has any reason to upset that apple cart. Hightower started Sunday and Wells was on the field – making the Cards’ first rushing attempt of the game – on the Cards’ second play. We all can see what Beanie brings. Whether he starts, truthfully, is immaterial.

– In case anyone wasn’t sure, punter Ben Graham continues to have his unbelievably good season (and that’s with a sore groin right now). He averaged 50.3 yards on seven kicks Sunday, put three more inside the Detroit 20-yard line and can boast this stat: He hasn’t kicked a ball into the end zone since the Houston game, which was the fourth game of the season. That’s 62 straight punts without a touchback over 11 games. He has 32 punts inside the 20 in that span.

– Jeremy Bridges got another start at left tackle, and that may not change. Mike Gandy is struggling mightily with that pelvic injury – Larry Fitzgerald said last week Gandy’s guts were “falling out” – and I’m not sure Gandy is going to be able to get back out there. It makes the Bridges signing gigantic.

– Congrats to tight end Anthony Becht, who played in his 150^th straight game Sunday.

– Quarterback Kurt Warner just seemed, I don’t know, off. There were a couple chances, especially early, where Anquan Boldin was open down the field and Warner didn’t see him or didn’t look his way. There were also a couple of near misses on interceptions on which Warner was lucky they weren’t turnovers. The fumble right before halftime – on which Warner simply wasn’t given enough time – cost the Cards three points.

Then again, Warner calmly hit Fitzgerald for a 13-yard gain to start the final drive (Oh, and don’t forget the huge 39-yard kickoff return by LaRod Stephens-Howling to set the offense up). And his final pass was the perfect five-yard screen to Boldin for a touchdown (I do love that Boldin screen in the red zone). Warner’s day was kind of a microcosm of the Cards’ day – yes, it was up and down. But in the end, it was good enough.

It’s gonna be quiet

Below is a shot of the stands 10 minutes before kickoff. There are lots and lots of empty seats and it’s totally quiet. The crowd will not be a factor today.

Snow and the NFC West race

Here in Detroit, there is a little bit of snow on the ground but certainly nothing that was going to affect the team’s trip today and again, with the dome situation, definitely nothing that will mess with tomorrow’s game. The same can’t be said for the 49ers’ game in Philadelphia, since Philly is one of the eastern cities getting hammered with the snow right now. The NFL officially pushed kickoff back of the Eagles-49ers game from 11 a.m. Arizona time (same as Cards-Lions) to 2:15 p.m., meaning the Cards — assuming a win tomorrow — will be on a plane when they could conceivably clinch the NFC West title. That happens with a Cards’ win and 49ers’ loss.

Of course, the 49ers may actually benefit from bad weather, because the Eagles’ offense has been so explosive of late, you figure bad weather may be the only thing that could help slow it.

Anyway, the Cards have to take care of their end first. That can’t happen until tomorrow, a few blocks from the Westin here in downtown Detroit.

Friday before the Lions

One road trip left. Sure, it’ll be sub-freezing temps in Detroit this weekend (last I checked, 31 degrees Saturday and Sunday) but thanks to the roof of Ford Field, it won’t make a difference in the game. That suits the Cards, who could use an offensive outburst in perfect conditions.

You never take anything for granted, but the Cards have to like the matchup with a Detroit team coming off an abysmal showing against the Ravens and trying to play out the string of what has been another rough season. Covering many bad seasons here, everyone always talked about playing for your job after the chance at the postseason faded, but that’s always a tough situation. How many Lions want to stay with the Lions? You always have to wonder what you’re up against.

And while the Lions can’t be happy with how they played last week, you know the Cards aren’t. You know Kurt Warner wants to bounce back, that Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells want carries to wash away memories of fumbles, that Larry Fitzgerald – who I expect to play – is desperate to pile up some yards after getting so few last week.

Meanwhile, there’s a good chance snow is going to be dumped on the Philadelphia area. We’ll see how that affects the 49ers-Eagles game.

First, though, the Cards must beat the Lions.

– Steve Breaston, barring an upset, isn’t getting back to 1,000 yards receiving this season. Heck, he’s had just two catches the past two games (for 23 yards) and just six over the past four. He was targeted six times in San Francisco but got just one catch (one pass was deftly knocked away; another he was open and Warner just misfired out of bounds).

“Some of it hasn’t gone his way, some of it is the way it’s gone in the game,” coach Ken Whisenhunt said. “Some of it is more run (calls). We’ve been in more two-tight end, two-back sets, which minimizes his time on the field. But I believe he will still make a few big plays for us yet this season.”

If you knew the Miracle Baby, you’d know he really doesn’t worry much about such things. He’s about as far from a diva receiver as you can get. “It’s difficult and you want the ball,” Breaston said. “You have to look at the situation. As long as you get open, people see that. Regardless of what happened last year, I am still the third receiver; we still have talented running backs. They all have to get their touches too. You can’t be impatient.”

A smile crossed his face. “When that ball comes, you need to make that play. The ball becomes more valuable to you, knowing it might not get back to you anytime soon.”

– The pass rush was a worry before the season. But the Cards have 36 sacks and are on pace for 45, which would easily be the best number the team has had since moving to Arizona (that number is 39, accomplished twice, in 1998 and 1988).

– Fitzgerald is nine yards short of 1,000 receiving yards. Anquan Boldin, with three games left, needs only 197, impressive considering how banged up he was the first half of the season. Maybe Q can repeat his 217-yard effort he had at Ford Field in his NFL debut.

– Gabe Watson is going home. He’s from Southfield, Michigan (where, among other things, he punted for his high school team – that’s right, Spongebob Squareback was a punter). It’s his first game back in Michigan since leaving the University of Michigan. He got 48 tickets for family and friends.

“I was a huge Barry Sanders fan and my dad used to take us to Lions’ training camps all the time,” Watson said. “That was the only NFL team I really knew about, so growing up, when I saw how big the guys were and knowing how big I was, I thought, ‘Shoot, I’d love to play here.’ Instead, I’m with the Cardinals.”

– The Cards’ defense has a chance at a big day. The Lions don’t have their best quarterback (Matt Stafford, bad shoulder) or their best running back (Kevin Smith, lost for the season with a knee injury). Their best receiver, Calvin Johnson, is nursing a bad knee. It’s impossible, after last week, to assume anything.

But the last time the Cards melted down with turnovers, it was against Carolina. The next week, they went on the road to the Midwest and pounded an NFC North team. That was Chicago. This is Detroit. Here’s hoping for more Warner TD passes. And some turnovers of the Cards’ very own.