The Cards’ possible comp pick

Posted by Darren Urban on February 1, 2010 – 1:57 pm

I’m not sure who he is, but “AdamJT13” has had a blog the past few years that has predicted the compensatory picks in the NFL draft — the extra picks handed out to teams when they lose more productive free agents the previous year then they gain — that’s been pretty right on.

Here were his thoughts on the Cardinals’ situation: “The Cardinals could get a third- or fourth-round pick, or they could get nothing. They lost one player who definitely will qualify and signed one player who definitely will qualify. The question is whether Terrelle Smith will count as a player lost and whether Jason Wright will count as a player signed. At this point, I would project that both of them will qualify based on their contract values, leaving the Cardinals with no comp picks. If Wright qualifies and Smith doesn’t, they wouldn’t get a comp pick, either. But if Smith qualifies and Wright doesn’t, the Cardinals would get a third- or fourth-round pick as compensation for losing Antonio Smith.”

“Adam” breaks down the whole league. It’s always been a kind of mystery how the NFL doles out the extra picks — it’s a formula “Adam” seems to have cracked — but obviously, to get an extra third- or fourth-round pick would be huge. That said, Wright played with the Cardinals all season and was important on special teams while Smith was cut by the Lions before they played the Cards. I don’t know the formula, but I don’t see how Smith would qualify and Wright wouldn’t, thus giving the Cards a bonus pick.

Comp picks are announced during the March owners’ meetings.

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13 Responses to “The Cards’ possible comp pick”

  1. By Eric on Feb 1, 2010 | Reply

    Didn’t we also lose Antonio Smith last year? I would think he’d be worth more than Terrelle Smith. Maybe I’m missing something, but I thought we got a 7th rounder (LSH) for Pace last season, so we should get something for the Strongest Right Arm, no?

  2. By darrenurban on Feb 1, 2010 | Reply

    Eric —

    If you read the whole thing, Antonio Smith is part of the equation. The seventh-rounder the Cards got last year was turned into Trevor Canfield.

  3. By Eric on Feb 1, 2010 | Reply

    Okay, I see that now. How does McFadden figure into the equation?

  4. By darrenurban on Feb 1, 2010 | Reply

    Eric —

    That I don’t know. Again, “Adam” is the expert. I couldn’t pretend to understand how this is sorted out.

  5. By ben on Feb 1, 2010 | Reply

    I think comp picks should be thrown out the window. They never seem to make sense. We will get none this year or a 7th. The patriots and chargers are sure to get about 8 extra picks 5 of which are around rounds 3 and 4. Complete mystery and a joke if you ask me.

  6. By Josh on Feb 1, 2010 | Reply

    This is what I found on how comp picks are decided…dont know if it helps though.
    Teams that gain and lose the same number of players but lose higher-valued players than they gain also can be awarded a pick, but only in the seventh round, after the other compensatory picks. Compensatory picks cannot be traded, and the placement of the picks is determined by a proprietary formula based on the player’s salary, playing time, and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor. So, for example, a team that lost a linebacker who signed for $2.5 million per year in free agency might get a sixth-round compensatory pick, while a team that lost a wide receiver who signed for $5 million per year might receive a fourth-round pick.

    If fewer than 32 such picks are awarded, the remaining picks are awarded in the order in which teams would pick in a hypothetical eighth round of the draft (These are known as “supplemental compensatory selections”).

  7. By Ottis Anderson Fan on Feb 1, 2010 | Reply

    I can’t control it, so I’m not going to worry about trying to figure it out.

    Let go, let God.

    Let go, let Kurt.


  8. By Kenny on Feb 1, 2010 | Reply

    Antonio Smith and Bryan McFadden cancel each other out. My understanding is that the value of free agents (to determine if they cancel each other out) is based solely on the value of the contract signed. So, even though Terrelle Smith didn’t play much and was ultimately cut, he’s not necessarily less valuable than Jason Wright, who contributed more throughout the year. It depends on the value of their respective contracts. What we don’t know each year (and what Adam’s formula has allegedly cracked) is the adjustable number the NFL uses to determine the worth of free agents in relation to the value of draft picks teams can be compensated.

  9. By mike hadzinski on Feb 1, 2010 | Reply


    A very close friend of mine who i played highschool football and flag when we were kids is in the nfl his name is Barry coefield a DT for the G-men i just talked to him on the phone my (dad and his dad still talk) i talked to him a little bit he is a free agent and he expressed INTREST in comeing to the desert i told him what is going on with B.Robinson and A.Branch kinda getting in the rotation and G.Watson not the same after the knee surgery he said he would talk to his agent but he pointed out that he wants to start do you think we can work something out with him comeing here he is a great person we used to call him bear when we were kids b/c he played WR but when he went to northwestern he became a true DT. My dad got him into football and was his first coach lol it’s kinda cool acutually knowing someone in the nfl.
    Mike Hadzisnki

  10. By darrenurban on Feb 1, 2010 | Reply

    Mike —

    I’m not sure on Coefield. It all depends on his status and what he is looking for contract-wise. The Giants play a 4-3 so I’d have to be sure he could play a true nose tackle.

  11. By AdamJT13 on Feb 1, 2010 | Reply


    Players’ values aren’t based solely on their contract, although that is the primary factor. Playing time and “postseason honors” also are part of the formula. Simulating the formula involves putting a value on all three factors, trying to weight them correctly, then trying to determine how the resulting value corresponds to the placement of a compensatory draft pick or the cancellation of a player lost/signed of similar value.

  12. By darrenurban on Feb 1, 2010 | Reply

    AdamJT13 —

    Welcome to our site. And thanks for putting out so much good info.

  13. By Jeff Gollin on Feb 2, 2010 | Reply

    NFL SOP – Other teams pull supplemental draft picks out of their respective butts.

    Cards always get less than they expect – if anything at all.

    It seems as if the League consistently treats the Cardinals like “the Mikeys of the NFL.”

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